14 Publishing Predictions for 2014

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Each year we post predictions about what the future of publishing may hold for authors and publishers. These 2014 Publishing Predictions are not our first glance into the future.

This post has a companion podcast episode on the Novel Marketing Podcast that you can listen to here.

Older Predictions Posts:

Prognosticators:

Publishing Predictions

1) Massive Audiobook Growth… Again

“Audiobooks will have another year of double digit growth. As the fastest growing book format (eBook growth leveled off in 2013) it will get more attention leading to even more growth.” – Thomas Umstattd Jr.

2) Another Surprise Bestseller

“There will be at least one surprise breakout Christian book.” – Steve Laube

3) Publishers Will Start Releasing Backlist Books As Audiobooks

“We will see more publishers taking advantage in the amazing growth of Audiobooks to convert backlist titles into audiobooks using services like ACX.com.”  – Thomas Umstattd Jr.

4) Year of the Publishing Collective

“Last year was the year of the coach (and we’ve seen coaching programs explode this year – including Platform University and MyBookTherapy), I think next year people will start grouping, or co-op-ing their publishing ventures to create mini-empires inside Amazon.” – Susan May Warren

5) Authors Will Refocus on Craft

“I think in 2014 authors will re-focus on the foundational importance of writing a good book. Conversations will be more about mastering the craft and less about the logistics of publishing. People are becoming aware that while options are expanding because of self-publishing, and it may be easier than ever to get your work out to readers, the process of writing a good book is the same as it’s ever been. It’s challenging, it’s grueling, it’s mentally and emotionally exhausting — and it can be incredibly satisfying. People will have a renewed awareness that ultimately, the great writing itself is the very best platform there is, and determine to put most of their efforts in that direction.” – Rachelle Gardner

6) Publishers Will Focus on Platform

“We will continue to see overtly cautious acquisitions in fiction and “platform” will continue to dominate the nonfiction conversations.” – Steve Laube

7) Publishers Will Focus on Previously Published Authors

“To maximize investment, I predict publishing houses will look to grow existing authors making it more difficult for debut authors to break into the traditional publishing business. An investment in the known versus the unknown is common in a volatile industry. But for those debut authors, I believe publishers will be looking more diligently for the unique concept, voice, angle or writing style in which to risk their advances. – Julie K. Gwinn

8) Christian Films Based on Christian Books Will Flood the Market

“There will be a glut of Christian based films that will compete with each other for the market’s attention. Only the best ones will succeed….the script is critical (content remains king).” – Steve Laube

Publishing Industry Predictions

9) The Sky Will Not Fall

“Though there will continue to be changes and advances in the publishing industry, 2014 will continue to offer great opportunities for aspiring writers. The traditional publishing houses (Harvest House, Zondervan, Tyndale, etc.) are adapting to change and will still be looking for good writers.  Self-publishing is seeing its best days ever, in my opinion.  A talented writer who has a vision for where he or she wants to go has all the tools available to succeed in 2014.” Nick Harrison

10) End of the eBook Scare

“Industry-wide, we’ll see business pick up. The ebook scare is over, and everyone seems to be getting back to doing what they do best.” – Amanda Luedeke

11) More Mergers

“I think in 2014 we’ll see more big mergers like Penguin Random House and more best-selling authors venture into self-publishing.” – Liz Curtis Higgs

12) Some Literary Agents Will Starve Out

“I think we’ll see some interesting shifts among agencies. There are a lot of agents in the CBA right now, and I can’t imagine that the industry will support all of us for very long. So we’ll either see agents quit, agencies merge, or we’ll see agencies reinvent how they do business.” – Amanda Luedeke

Social Media & Book Promotion Predictions

13) GoodReads Usability Improvements

“Amazon will finally get around to making GoodReads easier to use.” – Thomas Umstattd

14) Authors Will Flee Facebook Pages

“I think 2014 will be the year Facebook stops shooting themselves in the foot with BBs and starts using real bullets. In other words, people with Pages will get to the tipping point of being so fed up with Facebook limiting their posts from being seen (in order to drive ad revenue) that authors will start leaving in droves for other social media platforms.” – James L Rubart

What do you think?

What will 2014 hold for authors and publishers?