Each year we post predictions about what the future of publishing may hold for authors and publishers. These 2014 Publishing Predictions are not our first glance into the future.
This post has a companion podcast episode on the Novel Marketing Podcast that you can listen to here.
Older Predictions Posts:
Prognosticators:
- Steve Laube, Literary Agent
- Liz Curtis Higgs, New York Times Bestseller Author
- Thomas Umstattd Jr., Podcaster & CEO of Author Media
- Susan May Warren, Bestselling Author & Director of My Book Therapy
- Rachelle Gardner, Literary Agent
- James L Rubart, Bestselling Author
- Amanda Luedeke, Literary Agent
- Nick Harrison, Senior Editor at Harvest House Publishers
- Julie Gwinn, Editor Abingdon Press
Publishing Predictions
1) Massive Audiobook Growth… Again
“Audiobooks will have another year of double digit growth. As the fastest growing book format (eBook growth leveled off in 2013) it will get more attention leading to even more growth.” – Thomas Umstattd Jr.
2) Another Surprise Bestseller
“There will be at least one surprise breakout Christian book.” – Steve Laube
3) Publishers Will Start Releasing Backlist Books As Audiobooks
“We will see more publishers taking advantage in the amazing growth of Audiobooks to convert backlist titles into audiobooks using services like ACX.com.” – Thomas Umstattd Jr.
4) Year of the Publishing Collective
“Last year was the year of the coach (and we’ve seen coaching programs explode this year – including Platform University and MyBookTherapy), I think next year people will start grouping, or co-op-ing their publishing ventures to create mini-empires inside Amazon.” – Susan May Warren
5) Authors Will Refocus on Craft
“I think in 2014 authors will re-focus on the foundational importance of writing a good book. Conversations will be more about mastering the craft and less about the logistics of publishing. People are becoming aware that while options are expanding because of self-publishing, and it may be easier than ever to get your work out to readers, the process of writing a good book is the same as it’s ever been. It’s challenging, it’s grueling, it’s mentally and emotionally exhausting — and it can be incredibly satisfying. People will have a renewed awareness that ultimately, the great writing itself is the very best platform there is, and determine to put most of their efforts in that direction.” – Rachelle Gardner
6) Publishers Will Focus on Platform
“We will continue to see overtly cautious acquisitions in fiction and “platform” will continue to dominate the nonfiction conversations.” – Steve Laube
7) Publishers Will Focus on Previously Published Authors
“To maximize investment, I predict publishing houses will look to grow existing authors making it more difficult for debut authors to break into the traditional publishing business. An investment in the known versus the unknown is common in a volatile industry. But for those debut authors, I believe publishers will be looking more diligently for the unique concept, voice, angle or writing style in which to risk their advances. – Julie K. Gwinn
8) Christian Films Based on Christian Books Will Flood the Market
“There will be a glut of Christian based films that will compete with each other for the market’s attention. Only the best ones will succeed….the script is critical (content remains king).” – Steve Laube
Publishing Industry Predictions
9) The Sky Will Not Fall
“Though there will continue to be changes and advances in the publishing industry, 2014 will continue to offer great opportunities for aspiring writers. The traditional publishing houses (Harvest House, Zondervan, Tyndale, etc.) are adapting to change and will still be looking for good writers. Self-publishing is seeing its best days ever, in my opinion. A talented writer who has a vision for where he or she wants to go has all the tools available to succeed in 2014.” Nick Harrison
10) End of the eBook Scare
“Industry-wide, we’ll see business pick up. The ebook scare is over, and everyone seems to be getting back to doing what they do best.” – Amanda Luedeke
11) More Mergers
“I think in 2014 we’ll see more big mergers like Penguin Random House and more best-selling authors venture into self-publishing.” – Liz Curtis Higgs
12) Some Literary Agents Will Starve Out
“I think we’ll see some interesting shifts among agencies. There are a lot of agents in the CBA right now, and I can’t imagine that the industry will support all of us for very long. So we’ll either see agents quit, agencies merge, or we’ll see agencies reinvent how they do business.” – Amanda Luedeke
Social Media & Book Promotion Predictions
13) GoodReads Usability Improvements
“Amazon will finally get around to making GoodReads easier to use.” – Thomas Umstattd
14) Authors Will Flee Facebook Pages
“I think 2014 will be the year Facebook stops shooting themselves in the foot with BBs and starts using real bullets. In other words, people with Pages will get to the tipping point of being so fed up with Facebook limiting their posts from being seen (in order to drive ad revenue) that authors will start leaving in droves for other social media platforms.” – James L Rubart
What do you think?
What will 2014 hold for authors and publishers?
Thomas, I love your comment about Goodreads. Ever since the Amazon buyout I’ve been waiting for them to add a beige “g” button in between the blue “f” and the red “p.” Why is it still easier for me to Pin a book than to add it to my Goodreads queue?
Susan May Warren’s ideas about collectives are very interesting. I’ve been thinking about this a lot. The accounting complexities of running such a business make it daunting (how do you ensure everyone gets their fair share?), but the more I see the Big Five playing it safe by (#7) sticking to established authors, the more I think about it…
I predict many of the notorious “self-publishers” will have to shape up and begin producing quality books, rather than the rampant poor-quality volumes we most often see from them. Their poor reputations and work are beginning to catch up with them. Their editorial quality must improve, rather than their just printing whatever an author submits with little or no editing and proofreading. And covers will need to be more dynamic and powerful to compete in the marketplace, rather than being cookie-cutter versions. Authors will stop just looking for cheap-and-fast options and will begin searching for higher-quality options, finally realizing that just being “out there” is not enough–you have to be out there with class and quality to achieve real success.
Sorry, Mary, but I don’t see that coming. The fact is, the slush pile is getting published. Yours and others’ mistake is simply to consider the publishing world divided in two: traditionally published authors, and self-published (or Indie) authors.
The problems, fears, FUDs, and misconceptions all come from that mistake. Indie writers ALREADY have high editorial quality, work with professional cover artists, have beta-readers groups, proofreaders and editors to work with before hitting the dreadful “publish” button. Indie Authors ALREADY use high-quality options but the slush pile is flooding the net and the e-retailers channels.
The real publishing taxonomy is: traditionally published authors, indie-pendent authors, and trash-publishing. The ‘authors’ in this last category are what gets in your eyes and that will never change.
Maybe, hopefully, 2014 is the year where people will realize trash-publishing and self-publishing (indie authors) are two different, separated categories.
As a first-time self-published author (The Gospel According to Breaking Bad: http://bit.ly/tgatbbama), I looked into ACX.com over the holiday break and have been pleasantly surprised with the quality of the auditions I’ve received so far.
In other words, I’m encouraged by your first prediction. May it hold true!
I’m wondering if another trend might be literary agencies acquiring publishing companies. The Steve Laube agency recently announced the acquisition of Marcher Lord Press. I appreciate the post!
Amanda already alluded to that in #12!
Bonnie, you got it right. With POD solutions, access to professionals for editorial services, affordable costs, all contribute to having writers choosing self-publishing more every day.
“Being published” is no more the “added value” a publisher can put on the table to entice a writer to sign a contract. I’ve been contacted by two small publishers (not one of the Big 5) and conversation goes cold when they asked ME about MY marketing plans.
Why on this planet should I share royalties with others for something I can do for free by myself? What I need is not a replacement of my beta-readers, my cover artist, my proofreaders, and my editor for line and copy editing. What I need is marketing channels and pushing the titles into readers (and others’) radars. The roles of literary agents and publishers have to merge into a publisher/publicist.
I would agree with this. I self-published two books this fall and they have been getting good traction on Amazon. The advantage of self-publishing is that we can get books out a lot faster and can also have final say in what goes on the cover and the inside of the book. I didn’t try to get a publisher before I published myself, and not sure I would switch if I were asked. Would have to see what the advantages were. It would be different if I had a fiction book or more of a general market non-fiction book.
Happy New Year, Thomas, and the whole Author Media gang!
I’m extremely thrilled to see your predictions about Audiobooks, as I’m a producer/narrator and I’ve just joined ACX.com in the last month as a means to grow my clientele list. I think ACX.com is a fantastic way to get these audiobooks out without having to break the bank!
Looking forward to what’s ahead this year – thanks for all you do for us, your readers.
Psalms 39:7
Becky Doughty
Excellent podcast. I shared it with my writers group. I’m definitely going to look into doing an audiobook and I can’t wait for Amazon to make Goodreads user friendly. I hope your predictions come true!
Hi,
Great podcast/post.
My two cents on the Facebook thing is that: You should have a FAN page versus a Profile page. Facebook shuts you off after 5,000 friends. Also, it’s easier to search for your business if you have “friends”. If you have a fan page and your fans don’t see it should have a post to say “Can’t see our posts? Go to top of our page and click on the gear symbol, click that symbol and click to say – Show on my newsfeed” This way folks can have access to your page.
You really need to pick other social media sites in order for your book to be seen though and not just Facebook.
Hope that helps!
Great article and interesting predictions.
Audio books is also an area I’d like to get my books into. I see that as an expanding market too.
Predictable predictions 🙂 and glad to read them in print. I too have posted my sci-fi novels on ACX and got picked up by 2 producers in a matter of weeks and went with Sci-Fi Publishing LCC. Both are now audiobooks and they optioned the third.
Also glad to read that the ebook and indie writers are no more seen as acid reflux in the eyes by agents and publishers who feel the need to rewind, rethink, rewrite their business model. Kudos.
All the best,
Massimo
How about ACX expanding to Canada? Canadians want to publish audio books too!
I’m encouraged by the Goodreads prediction and agree with the Facebook observation. Thanks for compiling this list!
Personally I think writers have a better chance of getting the word out about their work on other social media platforms like Twitter and Google+. There’s just more potential for growth.
5 Huge Impacts Of Social Media On The Publishing Industry: http://www.spi-global.com/blog/innovation-lab/social-media-publishing-industry-convert-pdf-epub/