February 27, 2026 on Author Update:
Traditional publishing gets a surprising December boost in the latest AAP StatShot report, even as the broader market remains largely flat.
We’re also looking at new 2026 data on how avid readers discover and buy books, and a potential economic warning sign as Block cuts thousands of jobs while pointing the finger at AI.
Plus, Spotify rolls out weekly audiobook charts, a powerful new tool launches inside the Patron Toolbox, Julia Quinn demonstrates that premium romance is thriving on Kickstarter, and podcasts officially overtake talk radio in listening time. In our AI segment, we cover Google’s Nano Banana 2 and Cloudflare’s latest move to accommodate AI agents.
AAP December 2025 StatShot Shows Strong December Lift for Traditional Publishing
Thomas: While we have reported plenty of doom and gloom for traditional publishers, the industry had a strong December.
Before you assume that sales always rise in December, remember that these reports compare this December to last December. Christmas happened both years, so the holiday itself does not explain the increase.
Jonathan: Total revenue across all tracked categories reached about $1 billion in December, up 9.4% from December 2024. Year-to-date revenue for the full year was $14.6 billion, a 1.1% increase over the same period in 2024.
This data comes from about 1,300 publishers and measures net revenue from sales to bookstores, wholesalers, online retailers, direct-to-consumer channels, and others. Trade consumer books delivered the largest monthly gain. Revenues reached about $834 million in December, which is the majority of the $1 billion total. That figure is 14.2% higher than the previous year.
Physical formats led the way. Hardback sales were $307.6 million, rising 13.5% year over year. Paperback sales were $296.3 million, jumping 27.5% over the previous year.
Thomas: Mass market is still holding on. It has not dropped to zero, though it is getting closer.
Jonathan: It fell 60%, but it has not zeroed out.
Thomas: Readers who once bought mass market paperbacks are now buying standard paperbacks. The distinction between the two formats is fading.
One trend I have followed all year is ebooks versus digital audio. About seven or eight months ago, audiobooks surpassed ebooks in total sales for traditional publishers. A few months ago, ebooks briefly regained the lead. Now they have fallen again. Audiobooks account for 11.1% of total sales, while ebooks are down to 9.5%. That is a significant advantage for digital audio.
Ebook sales are dominated by indie authors. If you look at many ebook bestseller charts, the top 10 often include no traditional authors. There is a large segment of heavy readers, sometimes called “ebook whales,” who buy 100 books a year. They purchase most of those as ebooks or borrow them through Kindle Unlimited. Those readers are not captured in these traditional publishing numbers.
If you are an indie author, you may see the opposite pattern in your own data: ebooks first, audiobooks second, paperback third, and hardback fourth. For you, the chart may look inverted.
Jonathan: That is why it is important to understand how to use this data. If you are an indie author, you should not conclude that there is no money in ebooks. This report reflects what happened in traditional publishing last year. Traditional houses are clearly leaning into physical copies, especially in December, when the gift market is strong.
The 14.2% and 27.5% increases in hardbacks and paperbacks suggest that books were popular gifts this year. My question is why. Are books a budget-friendly purchase at around $20? They are easy to ship and easy to personalize. Or was there something else driving the surge?
Thomas: It was not just one specific title. The Charlie Kirk book I tried to buy was backordered for a month and a half. Demand was that strong.
As retail becomes increasingly commoditized, with inexpensive goods available from sites like Wish or Temu, physical gifts can feel less special. A book, especially a beautifully produced hardback, still feels intentional.
Those kinds of books make excellent gifts. We give our children a lot of books at Christmas.
Jonathan: One thing not covered in this report is gift cards. I would like to see December numbers for Barnes and Noble and Amazon Kindle gift cards. Are people choosing specific books for recipients, or are they saying, “Go pick out something you like”?
Thomas: From a business perspective, a gift card is technically a liability on a comopany’s balance sheet. It is not recognized as income until it is redeemed, because the company owes the holder merchandise equal to the card’s value.
That is why companies often push to retire old gift cards. Until redemption, the money is essentially an interest-free loan. This is one reason Starbucks grew so quickly. At any given time, billions of dollars in unredeemed Starbucks gift cards are circulating. Starbucks can use that cash operationally, even though it is not yet recognized as revenue.
For this StatShot report, which focuses on publishers rather than retailers, only redeemed gift cards would count. If someone received a $25 Barnes and Noble gift card in December but did not spend it until January, that sale would not appear in December’s numbers. If it was redeemed in late December, then it would be included.
Sources:
AAP December 2025 StatShot Report: Overall Publishing Industry Up 9.4% for Month of December, and Up 1.1% Year-To-Date
Hachette Climbs to Third Place Among US Publishers with 2025 Earnings Growth
Jonathan: Hachette reported 11% overall revenue growth. That figure includes the full-year impact of its Union Square & Co. acquisition, a deal with Barnes & Noble that closed in November 2024 and strengthened Hachette’s children’s and illustrated books portfolio. The growth lifts Hachette to third place among U.S. publishers, behind Penguin Random House and HarperCollins. According to reporting, this is the first time Hachette has held that position since 2012, moving ahead of Simon & Schuster. The U.S. and Canada now represent 28% of parent company Lagardère Publishing’s total revenue.
Thomas: Interestingly, many major American publishing houses are owned by European companies. Hachette Book Group is one of them.
The larger trend to notice is growth during a period of long-term contraction in traditional publishing. Over the past several decades, particularly as indie authors have gained market share, traditional publishers have faced increasing competition. In many ways, indies have steadily taken market share.
One way the Big Five navigate this competitive landscape is through acquisitions. They can show revenue growth even if the broader industry is flat or shrinking, because they are buying smaller publishers and adding those sales to their income statements. As a result, they can legitimately report higher revenue year over year.
Another notable detail is that Hachette’s fastest-growing sector was board games. I had not realized how significant that category was for them. Board games and stationery account for 19% of sales. That also helps explain why Barnes & Noble has devoted significant floor space to board games, as Hachette is one of its major vendors.
Jonathan: Barnes & Noble is cutting back its board game section, though.
Thomas: That is interesting. Some locations still have relatively large board game sections, though the selection often leans heavily toward Euro-style games. Regardless, the board game sector is performing well, and that category contributes meaningfully to Hachette’s overall results.
We aim to be equal-opportunity reporters. When traditional publishing performs well, we acknowledge it. Hachette was able to outpace inflation, even if only by about 1% in its book sales. They are not shrinking. Through acquisitions and category expansion, they are sustaining growth, which is likely pleasing their shareholders.
Sources:
Hachette Reports Solid 2025 Earnings, Is Now the Third Largest Publisher in the U.S.
HBG Sales Jumped 11% in 2025 – Publishers Weekly
Lagardère Publishing FY 2025 Results Presentation Slides (PDF)
Louis Hachette Group Full-Year 2025 Press Release
Hachette Reports Solid 2025 Earnings, Is Now the Third Largest Publisher in the U.S.
Full-Year 2025 results – Louis Hachette Group
HBG Sales Jumped 11% in 2025 – Publishers Weekly
U.S. Book Sales Finished 2025 with a Strong December; Adult Trade Finishes Down Slightly for the Year
Consumer Price Index data via BLS
Avid Readers Reveal How They Discover and Buy Books in 2026
Jonathan: Written Word Media released the results of its 2026 Reader Survey on February 2. The company surveyed 3,589 readers from its own audience, including subscribers to daily or weekly newsletters such as Freebooksy, Bargain Booksy, Red Feather Romance, and NewInBooks.
More than one in three respondents finished over 100 books in 2025. That is roughly two books per week.
Thomas: This survey does not reflect readers in general. The most common type of reader is someone who buys one James Patterson or Dan Brown novel per year. There are millions of those readers, but most authors cannot reach them unless their name is James Patterson or Dan Brown.
Jonathan: Correct. But if you use Freebooksy, Bargain Booksy, or similar promotional tools, especially in genres such as romance or LitRPG, this data is highly relevant.
Seventy-six percent of respondents regularly read ebooks, usually on dedicated devices such as Kindles or Kobos. Fifty-one percent also read physical paperbacks or hardcovers. Twenty-two percent listen to audiobooks.
Discovery channels remain consistent with past years. Amazon leads at 68%. Email newsletters follow at 64%. Goodreads accounts for 46%, friends and family for 45%, and social media for 42%. Libraries help 29% of readers find new titles, and author websites reach 30%. Bookstores matter to 27%. Artificial intelligence tools register at less than 1%.
Thomas: There has been significant discussion in AI circles about how disruptive these tools are becoming. In tech-heavy cities such as Austin or San Francisco, people feel the impact directly. Jobs are changing or disappearing. Meanwhile, much of the broader population barely uses ChatGPT. Many treat it like Google. They type short queries instead of detailed prompts. They are not paying for it and do not fully understand its capabilities.
We are not yet at the point where readers are taking a photo of their bookshelf and asking ChatGPT, “What else should I read?” The tool can do that, but most readers do not realize it.
This survey audience skews heavily toward fiction. People rarely binge nonfiction unless they are in school. I suspect AI tools are already influencing nonfiction discovery more than fiction, because nonfiction often solves a problem rather than providing entertainment.
Jonathan: The median monthly spend on books is $15, while the average is $29.56. Most readers pay under $5 per ebook. Twenty-six percent subscribe to Kindle Unlimited. Another 25% prefer to download free books whenever possible. More than 80% say they are extremely likely to read more books by an author they enjoy.
Thomas: These are speed readers. If someone reads two books per week, that is eight per month. At $20 per book, that would be $160 per month. Even at $5 per ebook, that is $40 per month, which is more than a Netflix subscription.
These readers are choosing books over streaming. Pricing must reflect that reality. For a slow reader who takes 10 hours to finish a $10 book, that is $1 per hour of entertainment. For a fast reader who finishes the same book in one hour, that is $10 per hour. That feels expensive.
This is why knowing your target reader matters. Understanding how fast they read affects sentence structure, paragraph length, and pricing strategy. Indie authors often focus on fast readers, producing shorter, lower-priced books and selling in volume.
Jonathan: Readers also express strong support for indie authors. The importance of backing self-published writers rated a median of 8 out of 10 across all brands, with Freebooksyreaders scoring highest at 8.2.
However, that sentiment does not translate into buying direct. Only 9% prefer purchasing directly from authors, while 56% express no strong preference. Readers prioritize convenience. They want to buy where they are accustomed to buying. Changing that behavior is difficult.
Audiobook listeners overwhelmingly prefer human narrators. More than 80% favor human voices, while fewer than 1% prefer AI narration. That surprised me, given this audience’s high consumption habits.
Thomas: When framed as “premium versus non-premium,” most people choose premium. A more practical question is whether they would prefer no audiobook at all or an AI-narrated audiobook. For many authors, the choice is between paying significant time and money for a human narrator or using AI to make the book available in audio format.
There is also a large, often overlooked group of audiobook consumers: truck drivers. Many truckers binge audiobooks. Some may fit into the “whale” category described in this survey, though they differ from romance ebook binge readers.
Jonathan: Many truckers still listen on CD. Truck stops continue to sell audiobooks on disc.
Thomas: If you are driving for 90 minutes, a CD works well enough. Still, CDs are not ideal for audiobooks. Many truckers have likely shifted to podcasts and political talk radio, which may explain broader cultural trends.
Truckers are an economically significant group, even if they are not perceived as high status. They have disposable income and long hours to fill. Some are heavy audiobook consumers. Overlooking them as customers may be a missed opportunity.
Sources:
2026 Reader Survey: What Readers Want, Buy, and Expect
Audience Insights: Everything You Wanted to Know About Our Readers
What 3,000 Readers Want Indie Authors to Know (podcast episode page)
Block Slashes Nearly Half Its Workforce as CEO Bets Big on AI
Jonathan: Block is cutting more than 4,000 jobs. Jack Dorsey, who previously ran Twitter, now leads the company. He announced the layoffs on X, saying, “We’re ripping the Band-Aid off and getting the pain over with.” He added that intelligent tools have changed what it means to build and run a company, and that significantly smaller teams can now “do more and do it better.”
Block reported $2.87 billion in gross profit for Q4. After the announcement, the stock surged as much as 25% in after-hours trading before settling lower. Dorsey said the company would spend about $500 million on severance, with employees receiving roughly 20 weeks of pay, plus additional compensation based on tenure.
Thomas: He essentially posted a tweet laying off nearly half his company.
There is an important dynamic at play. The stock market has been heavily automated for 10 to 15 years. Most people do not buy individual stocks. Their money sits in mutual funds or ETFs, which rely heavily on algorithmic management. While humans remain involved, they operate under fiduciary duty. If the data shows that layoffs improve financial performance, executives are pressured to act accordingly.
When Dorsey announced the cuts and the stock jumped, every CEO noticed. If the market rewards workforce reductions, others will follow.
Jonathan: Many CEOs believe they have staffing bloat. Elon Musk has argued that companies can cut 80% of staff and still function.
Thomas: Musk did exactly that at Twitter, now X, and the platform continued operating. That move drew intense political criticism, but from a business perspective, it demonstrated something significant.
As organizations grow, they add complexity. More people manage the people who manage the people. Fewer people directly produce output. This is not a new problem. Armies faced it in the ancient world. The farther an army marched from home, the more logistics it required. Eventually, most of the army consisted of supply chains rather than fighters.
The same principle applies to companies. Adding staff does not always increase productivity. Many employees spend their days in meetings, sending emails, or coordinating alignment. With APIs and AI tools, some of that intermediary work can be automated. In a company of 10,000 employees, a relatively small percentage may actually be building the product.
Jonathan: The rise of middle management came from the need for alignment in complex organizations. In the military, we would stand in formation, align ourselves physically, then receive orders for the day. That structure reduced complexity.
Now AI can distribute goals directly through systems and software. Workers can self-organize around clear objectives without as many layers of management.
Thomas: It is important not to frame this solely as an AI issue. Companies have been trimming middle management for decades. When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in the 1990s, he found what he called a “Cambrian explosion of bozos.” His term, not mine. He believed underperforming managers hired more underperforming managers. Jobs famously moved quickly to remove them.
Today, some CEOs are “AI-washing” layoffs they likely needed to make anyway, especially after overhiring during the period of cheap capital around COVID.
Jonathan: AI also serves as a convenient villain. People blame the technology rather than the executive.
Thomas: Sometimes that is unfair. Sometimes it is not.
If your job consists largely of meetings and emails, you should be aggressively learning to use AI. The most efficient employees, those who automate routine tasks and free up time for high-value work, are more likely to survive.
Managers still perform essential functions. Coaching, mentoring, and interpersonal leadership matter. But the administrative burden can shrink dramatically with AI assistance.
I have predicted a kind of divide in the economy: those who are the boss of AI and those for whom AI is the boss. Consider Amazon drivers directed entirely by algorithms. Or consider new pilots where fast-food employees wear headsets powered by AI that monitor customer interactions, tracking whether they say “please” and “thank you.”
We are moving toward a world where either you understand how to direct AI or you are directed by it.
If you are using AI, remember one practical rule: write paragraphs, not sentences. Many people treat ChatGPT like Google. They type a short query and receive a shallow response. AI performs far better with detailed prompts. The quality of output improves dramatically when you provide context and clarity.
For authors, this matters because you are the CEO of your own publishing company. Use AI to streamline your workflow. Set clear goals. Evaluate your progress. Reduce inefficiencies. Focus on producing excellent work while controlling costs.
Optimization is not new. What is new is how accessible these tools have become. If you can streamline your operation and still deliver a great product, that is the path forward.
Sources: Block Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter Block Shares Soar as Dorsey Leans on AI to Trim Workforce (Reuters) Jack Dorsey Lays Off 40% of Block, Saying AI Has Changed the Game (Fortune) Block Lays Off 40% of Staff and Blames It on AI. Don’t Buy the Excuse (Forbes) Fintech Company Block Lays Off 4,000 of Its 10,000 Staff, Citing Gains from AI (AP News) Block’s Mass Layoffs Put Jack Dorsey on the Hook for $68 Million Party (Yahoo Finance)
Spotify Launches Weekly Audiobook Charts for US and UK Listeners
Thomas: This creates a significant opportunity to become a bestselling author on a brand-new chart.
Jonathan: Spotify has introduced an overall Top Audiobooks list focused on the U.S., along with dedicated genre charts for romance, mystery and thriller, self-help, sci-fi and fantasy, and biography and memoir. Rankings update weekly based on actual listening data, not just sales. Spotify measures performance by minutes listened, so the winners are the books people are actually hearing.
Users can find the charts in the Spotify app by tapping Search, selecting the Audiobooks hub, scrolling to the “Dive Deeper” section, and choosing Audiobook Charts. It is somewhat buried in the interface.
Wuthering Heights by Emily Brontë currently holds the number one spot on the U.S. overall chart. Spotify reports a 440% increase in listens for that title since the trailer for the new film adaptation dropped last September. First-time listeners jumped 260%, suggesting that users are sampling the audiobook, often through Spotify’s ad-supported tier, to decide whether they want to engage further. The film adaptation has also performed well at the box office.
This move fits into Spotify’s broader push into audiobooks. Premium subscribers receive 15 hours of listening time per month from a catalog of 500,000 titles. Spotify has also rolled out features such as Page Match, which we have discussed previously, and offers publishing and distribution programs to help independent authors enter its ecosystem.
With these charts, authors can now track performance more directly. A possible strategy is to concentrate promotion around a specific week to drive enough listening time to chart. That requires careful planning, coordinated advertising, and targeted promotional efforts.
Thomas: You also need to have written a book that appeals to Spotify’s audience. Spotify users skew younger and represent a distinct demographic. If you do not personally use Spotify, it may be difficult to create content that resonates with its core listeners.
Spotify and Apple Music attract different audiences, and their charts do not mirror one another. Understanding that distinction is critical before investing in a chart-focused strategy.
Sources:
Spotify Launches Audiobooks Charts
Spotify launches audiobook charts in UK and US
‘Wuthering Heights’ Audiobook, Voiced by Aimee Lou Wood, Sees 440% Increase in Listens Following Trailer Drop
AuthorMedia Launches Business Plan Generator in Patron Toolbox
Thomas: Last week, I interviewed Joanna Penn about the business side of writing. I always enjoy talking with Joanna, and business is my favorite topic to explore with her. My first interview with her 10 years ago was also about the business of writing.
Many people present “being a business as a writer” as something exotic, as if you need an expensive course to understand it. I went to business school. It is simply a business. There are a few industry-specific details, but business fundamentals apply whether you are selling books or dry cleaning.
One principle we discussed is the importance of having a business plan, so I created the Business Plan Generator. It walks you through a series of questions, incorporates my training and tuning, and generates a customized business plan. People are using it and finding it helpful.
It is a more involved tool than most features in the Patron Toolbox. Many tools are simple. You upload your manuscript and the system does the work. For example, I recently upgraded the Character Compendium. It now lists every character in your book, provides a bio, outlines each character’s arc if one exists, and even includes guidance for an audiobook narrator. I tested it on my brother’s novel, which has 40-plus characters, and it generated more than 50 pages of material. That tool is easy to use, even though it was complex to build.
The Business Plan Generator requires more input because you must answer strategic questions. However, the most challenging questions are supported by other Toolbox features.
For example, one prompt asks you to describe your “Timothy,” which is my term for your ideal target reader. If you are familiar with the podcast, you know Timothy is the reader you are trying to thrill. There is a Timothy Finder tool that helps you define that reader. You can copy and paste those results directly into the Business Plan Generator.
The same applies to your book pitch. If you already have back cover copy, the tool can use it. If you do not, there is another feature where you upload your manuscript and receive a one-paragraph pitch, a one-sentence pitch, and full back cover copy.
If you need a structured plan for your writing career, I encourage you to explore the Business Plan Generator.
Sources:
Author Business Plan Generator | Go From Craft to Profit How to Become a Professional Writer With Joanna Penn
Podcasts Surpass Talk Radio in Listening Time
Thomas: Podcasts have surpassed talk radio in total minutes listened. I was surprised this shift only just happened, because for me it happened about 15 years ago. I used to listen to a lot of talk radio. Now I listen almost exclusively to podcasts.
It is important to remember that not everyone is like you. Many people still listen to traditional radio. However, a new study from Edison Research, considered the gold standard in audio research, confirms the shift. Their annual Share of Ear study provides the data.
Jonathan: According to Edison Research’s fourth quarter 2025 Share of Ear study, podcasts account for 40% of all time Americans age 13 and older spend with spoken-word audio. AM/FM radio follows closely at 39%. Spoken-word content overall makes up 25% of total daily audio time in the United States.
The study tracks how people divide their listening between music and spoken word, and across different platforms.
The change is dramatic. In 2015, AM/FM radio represented 75% of spoken-word listening time, while podcasts held just 10%. I remember my dad listening to Rush Limbaugh for three hours every day. Now many people spend that same amount of time listening to podcast hosts such as Joe Rogan.
Thomas: The key takeaway for authors is strategic. Many authors still view radio interviews as more prestigious than podcast appearances. In reality, podcasts may be more effective.
Radio listeners are often in their cars, where taking action is difficult. Podcast episodes typically include show notes, links in the description, and sometimes accompanying blog posts. When a listener hears about your book on a podcast, they can tap a link immediately. That makes conversion much easier.
This shift from terrestrial radio to podcasts is a positive trend for authors planning book launches.
Jonathan: One practical application is serialization. Before recording a polished audiobook, I sometimes read my manuscript aloud on YouTube as practice. You could turn that into a podcast and release it as a serialized draft. You might frame it as “the unpolished version” or “a behind-the-scenes read.”
Platforms such as Patreon show that dedicated supporters enjoy access to raw drafts and early content. Serialized podcast readings can build engagement while you refine the final audiobook.
Sources:
Podcasts Lead AM/FM in Spoken-Word Listening, Marking a First
Americans now listen to podcasts more often than talk radio, study shows
Podcasts surpass AM/FM talk radio in U.S. for first time, Edison Research find
Podcast Listening Surpasses AM/FM Radio Spoken Word Listening For First Time, New Edison Research Data Shows
AI Segment
Google Launched Nano Banana 2 Yesterday: Pro-Level AI Images Now at Lightning Speed
Thomas: Google has launched Nano Banana 2. We used it to create today’s thumbnail, so you can judge the results for yourself. What you see is the single take.
Nano Banana 2 is designed to be better and cheaper than previous versions, with improved text handling. I plan to integrate it into the Book Cover Designer inside the Patron Toolbox within the next week or two.
If you are familiar with Nano Banana, this new version is based on Google’s Flash model and is currently outperforming Nano Banana Pro on benchmark tests. It also operates at a lower token cost. Most of you do not pay for tokens directly, but for those who do, that cost difference matters.
Sources:
Nano Banana 2: Combining Pro capabilities with lightning-fast speed
Google launches Nano Banana 2 model with faster image generation
Google Nano Banana 2 arrives: How to try it now
Google rolls out Nano Banana 2 after viral success of AI image generation tool
The Turn of the Tide: Cloudflare Shifts from Blocking AI Crawlers to Optimizing for Them
Thomas: There has been a shift at Cloudflare. The company has moved from primarily blocking AI crawlers to optimizing for them. You can still block crawlers if you choose, but Cloudflare now offers a feature called “Markdown for Agents.”
If you host your domain with Cloudflare, and many people do whether they realize it or not, you can serve a markdown version of your webpages specifically for AI agents. This creates a clean, text-only version of the page for tools such as ChatGPT and Claude.
The markdown version strips out images, graphics, tracking scripts, and ads. In many cases, 80% of a webpage is HTML and styling code that exists only to make the page look good. That extra code increases token costs for AI agents processing the page and increases hosting costs for the site owner. Serving markdown reduces costs on both sides and improves efficiency.
We discussed AI optimization recently in the context of Google’s upcoming technology. That system is not yet available. Cloudflare’s solution, however, already works. At the lowest paid tier, the feature is simply a toggle. It is currently compatible with Claude and ChatGPT, though not yet with Grok or Gemini. Because it saves money and improves performance, I expect rapid adoption.
I upgraded Author Media’s Cloudflare plan specifically to enable this feature. I frequently crawl my own site with AI tools, including “AI Thomas,” my chatbot trained on past episodes that answers questions and links back to relevant content. Feeding it markdown versions of webpages lowers token costs and improves output quality by eliminating unnecessary HTML noise.
If you run a nonfiction blog on WordPress or host through Cloudflare, this feature may be worth enabling. Otherwise, keep an eye on it. As AI-driven search and discovery evolve, tools like this will likely become standard.
Sources: Introducing Markdown for Agents Markdown for Agents · Cloudflare Fundamentals docs
Cloudflare AI Audit and Control (2024 blocking tools) Cloudflare Plans Pricing
Premium Demand Thrives: Julia Quinn’s Curated Romance Box Smashes Goal Despite Trad Pullback
Jonathan: Previously, we reported on Julia Quinn’s curated romance box on Kickstarter. She selected four to six books, created premium editions, and offered them as part of a subscription. Backers receive a Julia Quinn–curated romance box every few months, depending on the number of titles included.
At the same time, Harlequin was backing away from traditional historical romance.
Quinn’s campaign set a modest goal of $10,000. As of today, it has raised $416,789 from 966 backers, more than 4,100% of its goal, with a month remaining before the March 27 close. The average pledge is $434. For historical romance authors, that number is startling.
Thomas: Those were earlier numbers. She is now at $426,000 with 986 backers, and likely will surpass 1,000 soon. At this pace, she could reach between half a million and three-quarters of a million dollars.
Jonathan: This highlights an important trend within romance. You have Kindle Unlimited readers who operate on a budget model. To them, books feel free because they pay a monthly subscription and do not mentally connect the subscription cost to individual titles.
By contrast, Quinn’s backers want to belong to an exclusive club. There is status in being part of a curated romance circle, similar to a celebrity book club. Prestige plays a significant role in driving those pledges.
Thomas: I recorded a podcast episode in 2020 that explains exactly why this campaign is succeeding, why Harlequin struggled, and why authors make so much money on Kindle Unlimited. If you understand marketing psychology and business principles, none of this is surprising.
The episode centers on Aristotle’s “diamond-water paradox.” Why are diamonds more valuable than water? You can live your entire life without seeing a diamond, but you cannot survive without water. Yet diamonds command far higher prices.
In reality, you spend more money on water each year than on diamonds, unless you recently purchased an engagement ring. Most markets offer two paths to wealth: scarcity or ubiquity.
Scarcity is the diamond strategy. The product is rare, exclusive, and expensive. Ubiquity is the water strategy. The product is common, widely available, and affordable.
Books are one of the few products that can succeed under both strategies simultaneously. The same story can be sold as water or as a diamond. A reader might buy the $5 ebook, read it through Kindle Unlimited, or pay $400 for a premium edition.
What does not work is the middle ground, where a product is neither rare nor widely accessible. That is where businesses struggle.
When authors ask, “What is the right price for my book?” they are asking the wrong question. A book does not have one price. It has multiple prices. At any given time, it may have three or four price points, and over its lifetime, perhaps a dozen.
If you understand that pricing is dynamic, you can maximize both revenue and reader satisfaction. Readers are delighted to spend $400 on a premium edition when it feels special. Others are equally delighted to buy a discounted ebook. Both strategies can coexist.
Listen to the following episodes on pricing:
- Book Marketing 101: Price
- How to Price Your Book Using Marketing Psychology
- Book Marketing 101: How to Price Your Ebook
- How to Use Price Pulsing to Supercharge Your Backlist Sales
At the Novel Marketing Conference, I was surprised by how many attendees, people who paid hundreds of dollars and traveled across the country, told me they had never listened to the free podcast.
Jonathan: They skipped the free option and went straight to the paid one.
Thomas: That is the diamond-water paradox in action. Some people value what they pay for more than what is free. There is also a psychological factor. Advice given in a paid context often feels more actionable.
In my courses, I include exclusive material, but I also provide related podcast episodes as supplemental content. Students often say, “It hits different.” The difference is not the information. It is the investment.
Jonathan: I saw this during the Author Arsenal writing challenge. I charged $100 for a writing boot camp with no refunds. When authors have $100 at stake, they push through resistance. They may quit on themselves, but they do not want to lose the money.
Thomas: That is called a pre-commitment strategy. You assign a cost to failure in advance. Refund policies have their place. I offer generous refunds for courses. For the conference, however, there are no refunds. The event sells out, costs are fixed, and commitment matters.
Some attendees feel nervous beforehand and consider backing out. When refunds are not an option, they come anyway. Every survey respondent said they were glad they attended, and many plan to return next year.
Scarcity, commitment, and pricing psychology all work together. Understanding those principles helps explain why a $400 romance box can thrive while other models struggle.
Sources:
JQ Editions: Julia Quinn’s Curated Romance Book Box
Harlequin to Discontinue Historical Romance
Julia Quinn on JQ Editions and the Genre
Bridgerton Author Rolls Out Historical Romance Subscription Box
Zeitgeist
Romance Dominates Kindle But Shows Signs of Maturing
Jonathan: In this zeitgeist segment, we are going to dive into the K-lytics Romance Report.
Romance accounts for roughly 70% of Kindle ebook sales on Amazon. It is the dominant genre, and no other category seriously challenges it. Even “Literature & Fiction,” the broader umbrella category that contains romance, only barely edges it out.
K-lytics reports an average sales rank of 93 for the top 100 romance titles, which translates to an estimated 641 daily sales per title. By comparison, mystery, thriller, and suspense average about 218 daily sales per title, while science fiction and fantasy average around 283.
Long-term trends show a bestseller surge beginning in mid-2020 that has remained elevated. In 2020, people were locked in their homes, and they still wanted connection. They reached for relationship stories, and that appetite has continued.
Thomas: That is an interesting insight, and it might warrant a future segment on medication and culture. Many people medicate in different ways. I have seen statistics suggesting that tens of millions of women in the U.S. take SSRIs. Many also use hormonal birth control. Both can affect mood and preferences, including relational and entertainment preferences. That is not even counting painkillers and other medications.
If you want to understand your target audience, it may be useful to understand what medications are common and how those trends are changing. Gen Z, for example, is beginning to push back against hormonal birth control, and the cultural narrative around it is shifting in interesting ways.
Jonathan: Entertainment choices often function as a form of self-regulation. People reach for stories to address a deficit, whether that is boredom, dissatisfaction, or stress. The romance genre can fill a similar emotional role for women that pornography often fills for men.
Now, let me run through some numbers.
Contemporary romance leads the subcategory rankings, currently outperforming historical romance. It achieves an average sales rank of 32 for the top 20 titles, which is more than 1,000 daily sales per title. Holiday romance follows at 94. So yes, holiday still works. Romantic comedy sits at 98, romance at 141, romantic suspense at 154, and billionaires and millionaires at 167. From there, the trend continues downward.
One detail I found amusing in the report is the seasonality of “love triangle” interest. Searches for love triangle books spike in January and March. That is right after December and February, after major relationship-heavy holidays. It is fun to watch those patterns play out.
The highest 12-month growth is in LGBTQ and gay romance, driven primarily by hockey romance.
Thomas: When you look at category performance, it is easy to assume the entire category is hot. Often, a few breakout titles pull the whole category upward.
The growth of LGBTQ categories is also interesting because these labels function similarly to Christian categories on Amazon. You will see Christian fantasy and LGBTQ fantasy, for example. These categories often operate as audience descriptors more than strict content definitions. Amazon does not enforce category boundaries very tightly, although it has begun modest policing. Either way, we are seeing a proliferation of these “identity” category tags across Amazon.
Jonathan: The larger takeaway is that the human desire for relationship has not changed. Over the past 30 years, cultural definitions of marriage and family have shifted repeatedly, through the normalization of divorce, new definitions of family structure, and recent trends such as polyamory.
Yet romance continues to dominate. The readers of romance, overwhelmingly women, still want relationship narratives and family outcomes. You can see cultural currents reflected in which subcategories surge. During the early 2000s, for example, one of the cultural breakout points was Fifty Shades of Grey and BDSM themes. Romance often reacts to social trends.
Hockey romance is a useful example. The typical hockey protagonist is strong, competitive, and physically capable. Readers are reaching for that archetype right now. You may also see more hockey romance because of the Olympics, especially after the U.S. team won gold over Canada.
Thomas: Here is an opportunity that applies beyond romance. I pulled up the K-lytics report. The number one category is contemporary romance, which is always a catchall. The number two category is romance holidays. That surprised me. Holiday romance outperforms romantic comedy and several other popular subcategories.
Anyone can write a holiday-themed story, just as every band eventually makes a Christmas album. If your military sci-fi series includes Earth traditions, you can do Christmas on a spaceship. It allows you to shift tone away from end-of-the-world stakes and create something warmer.
If you want to see this done well, read Jim Butcher’s Christmas short story from The Dresden Files. He gives it away for free on his website. It is powerful, and it feels distinctly Christmas while still staying true to the characters and the world.
We should also acknowledge something many people have mentioned in the chat. There are two ways to view the romance industry. You can see it as an extension of the literary industry, or as adjacent to adult entertainment. Increasingly, romance is marketed around tropes and fetishes, with an emphasis on the promised experience.
At the same time, covers have become less explicit even as content becomes more explicit. Many romance covers now resemble children’s books or YA. As a parent, I find that trend concerning.
Jonathan: Amazon removed the erotica categories, which means explicit books often flow into other categories without clear labeling. Some covers mask the content. Readers may still recognize the underlying promise from author branding, tropes, and marketing language, but casual buyers may not.
A romance story sells an experience. The reader is often looking for a specific kind of relationship fantasy. If you do not connect with the love interest, the story fails. Take You’ve Got Mail. Tom Hanks is not a stereotypical “man’s man,” but he is a strong romance lead for many women because he is vulnerable, funny, emotionally articulate, and committed. The book or film offers access to that kind of man, that kind of relationship, for a little while.
Thomas: As I look through the report, here is another cultural signal. “Enemies to lovers” has declined sharply over the past 12 months, down 145%. As we shift into what some call a “fourth turning,” readers appear to want stories where a man and a woman fight together against an external enemy, rather than fighting each other.
Jonathan: I have a challenge for authors: write a book where a liberal woman falls in love with a MAGA guy, and see how it performs.
Thomas: There were plenty of parody covers along those lines. But this connects to a larger cultural trend that informs fiction and nonfiction.
We are living through a marriage epidemic. The number of unmarried people in the U.S. is higher than ever. Marriage rates are down. Cohabitation rates are down. Dating rates are down. For many younger people, the dating market is broken, particularly on swipe-based apps. The top 20% do fine. The bottom 80% struggle.
Part of that problem is structural. Many dating apps are owned by the same parent company, Match Group, which has an incentive to keep people subscribed. If you want to read my proposed solution, my book Courtship Crisis addresses these dynamics, particularly within conservative dating culture, and how those patterns spread more broadly.
Jonathan: I am writing Shades of Black 3 right now, and I am exploring the idea that men often do the right thing when expectations are placed on them. A mother expects her son to be honorable. A wife expects her husband to be honorable. Those expectations shape behavior.
You can track cultural shifts through romance and hero archetypes. During a period of “I don’t need a man,” men responded by becoming more feminized and less threatening. But as the world feels more dangerous, readers start asking, “Where are the knights?” You see this in the return of Arthurian themes. Batman is not trending the same way. Superman is being pushed back into prominence. People want heroes again.
Henry Cavill is getting major roles because he embodies the “good man” archetype. Readers and viewers are hungry for that.
When you write books, you can meet a universal hunger right now. Readers want good relationships. They want good men and good women, and they want women who expect men to be good.
Thomas: Eastern storytelling has provided that dynamic for a long time. If you walk into Barnes & Noble, one of the largest sections now is manga. It can feel like a quarter of the store. In many Eastern stories, the core conflict is not between the couple. It is the couple fighting together against an external enemy.
There is also a generational gap. Younger audiences consume far more Eastern storytelling than older audiences. Many boomers have never watched anime, read manga, or engaged with LitRPG. Then they wonder why their stories do not resonate with young people.
I have an upcoming episode with an indie author who sold a million copies in the past four or five years by leveraging this shift. He is going to explain how he did it.
Jonathan: You also have to look at the culture producing these stories. Japan has faced serious demographic decline. There are social dynamics there that deserve attention, including disconnects between young men and women and the effects of entertainment culture.
Thomas: I have heard another explanation. Japan relied on arranged marriage for centuries. When they moved away from it, they never rebuilt a stable dating market. They adopted Western dating systems at a time when Western dating was already breaking. They did not have the same community structures for meeting partners that existed elsewhere.
In many parts of the U.S., family is framed as a nuclear unit. In multi-generational family systems, relationships such as the mother-in-law and daughter-in-law are far more central, because everyone lives closely together. When that relationship is hostile, the entire household suffers. That is one reason families historically had influence in marriage decisions.
Jonathan: Cultural practices can have deep roots. In the Marine Corps, I once briefed senior officers on honor killings in Islamic cultures. Those practices predate Islam and connect to nomadic raiding cultures. Raids required moral justification to other trading partners. Sexual “dishonor” could become a pretext for violence. Families sometimes used extreme punishments as a way to avoid becoming targets. I am not defending the practice. I am explaining one of the historical mechanisms by which it developed. Those cultural roots still matter today.
Thomas: Cultures persist. Religions influence them, but people are still people.
Sources: K-lytics Premium Romance Report
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